COVID-19
The Wales Firebreak
The Wales Firebreak that came into effect on 23rd October attracted a great deal of media attention last week, with photographs of cordoned off ‘non-essential’ aisles a regular feature. But has the Wales Firebreak worked in terms of reducing activity?
4th November 2020
The answer appears to be a resounding ‘Yes’. The regional week-on-week drop we saw in our Retail Recovery Index was the biggest regional drop since the initial national Lockdown in March. Activity levels in city centres and town centres were down to the levels of late March.
Cardiff City Centre has dropped to just 10% of its baseline level. Swansea, Newport, Cwmbran and Wrexham have also reverted to their late March / early April lockdown lows.
That story is repeated across the towns, villages, urban centres and parades across Wales. 95% of the 280 Retail Places we measure in Wales showed week on week declines.
|
Retail Place |
Type |
Local Authority District |
% Change Last Week |
|
Cowbridge |
Town Centre |
The Vale of Glamorgan |
-60.2% |
|
Denbigh |
Town Centre |
Denbighshire |
-54.7% |
|
Barmouth |
Town Centre |
Gwynedd |
-52.1% |
|
St Davids |
Town Centre |
Pembrokeshire |
-47.1% |
|
Rhayader |
Village Centre |
Powys |
-46.5% |
|
Knighton |
Town Centre |
Powys |
-42.6% |
|
Prestatyn |
Town Centre |
Denbighshire |
-41.9% |
|
Llangefni |
Town Centre |
Isle of Anglesey |
-40.6% |
|
Blaneau |
Town Centre |
Blaenau Gwent |
-40.6% |
|
Abersoch |
Town Centre |
Gwynedd |
-39.5% |
|
Tonypandy |
Town Centre |
Rhondda Cynon Taf |
-38.1% |
|
Raglan |
Village Centre |
Monmouthshire |
-38.1% |
|
Ebbw Vale |
Town Centre |
Blaenau Gwent |
-35.9% |
|
Aberdare |
Town Centre |
Rhondda Cynon Taf |
-35.9% |
|
Blackwood |
Town Centre |
Caerphilly |
-35.4% |
|
Tenby |
Town Centre |
Pembrokeshire |
-34.3% |
|
Pontyclun |
Town Centre |
Rhondda Cynon Taf |
-32.9% |
|
Talbot Green |
Town Centre |
Rhondda Cynon Taf |
-32.7% |
|
Mold |
Town Centre |
Flintshire |
-31.9% |
The early experience of Wales gives some sense of what we might expect from the England Lockdown. It will also provide a clear comparison point as we seek to understand whether the different approaches have different effects; most importantly on the ability to contain infections, but also on the vitality of the retail sector as we move into the Christmas run-up.
Ben Purple, Director at GEOLYTIX
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